Thursday 8.30 amBlack Swans. The totally unexpected happening. They happen all the time and yet are always unexpected. You have heard the excuses, "it was a one in a million chance" or "a one in 500 year occurance" or even just "who would have thought that would happen ?" The nuclear industry will probably come up with a good one when they poison the planet or the financial planners when your life savings disappear. But logically, if something can happen then it will. Or it will not. Or it might, we cannot foresee the future after all. So why are we surprised. I have been reading "Fooled by Randomness" by Nassim Nicholas Taleb and although quite difficult to read ( he rambles on just like I do ) he does explain it better. It seems our brains are set up to recognise patterns, day follows night follows day that sort of thing. It helps us live, a car going along the road in the distance will end up there in a few minutes and so I can cross safely here now. It all done without concious thought most of the time, we presume the ground will be there when we step and so can think or talk of other things whilst walking. But what if it isn't ? You throw a ball in the air and it comes down again, but what if it doesn't ? "Of course it will" you might say, "I have done it a million times, it always comes down". But this is where the unexpected comes in. Our minds see patterns and then extrapolate them into the future, and this is so hardwired into us that we cannot envisage it any other way, and this is why we are surprised when something (unexpected) happens. And Black Swans ? I think it was David Hume who mentioned this first. You see a white swan, and another and another. You might spend your whole life looking for swans and they are all white. But at no time no matter how many white swans you see, can you say that all swans are white. One black swan in a million white ones changes everything. And If you threw a ball up and it stopped in mid air ? As Nicola said about Harry Potter, part of the appeal is that lots of us would like things to be suddenly different, for magic perhaps to be real. Deep down inside I think we know it is and have just forgotten.
Three black ducks, three white ducks, and three brown ducks, but no ducklings. pic by nicola
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1 comment:
It seems that until the discovery of Australia no black swans had been seen. And it was David Hume who first brought this idea up although he did not mention swans as such.
If you are interested, I find it fascinating myself, you might find this interesting http://www.fooledbyrandomness.com/ARTE.pdf
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